Fictional Demonstration · Evidence-Led Simulation
Mortgage & Equity Planner
Your Next Move, Explained · Comparative Scenario Analysis
Current Asset: Lynn Valley Townhome (~$1,600,000)
Mortgage Balance: $500,000 (3.5% Fixed)
Target Move: Canyon Heights House (~$2,200,000)
Horizon: 12 Months
Scenario 1: Move Now
$6,548/mo
New Mortgage: $1,149,400 @ 4.79%
Price Gap: $600,000
Cash to Close: $1,098,100
PTT: $44,000
Scenario 2: Wait 12 Months (Baseline)
$6,307/mo
New Mortgage: $1,168,763 @ 4.25%
Price Gap: $634,000 (+3.0%)
Payment Delta: -$241/mo
PTT: $45,980
Scenario 3: Stay & Pay Down
$2,947/mo
Keep existing loan @ 3.5%
Equity at 12m: $1,148,000
Friction Saved: $95,900
Preserves Current Rate
Comprehensive Financial Comparison
| Decision Metric | Move Now | Wait 12 Months | Net Variance (Later - Now) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target Purchase Price | $2,200,000 | $2,266,000 | $66,000 |
| Current Home Net Sale Proceeds | $1,048,100 | $1,096,717 | $48,617 |
| BC Property Transfer Tax (PTT) | $44,000 | $45,980 | $1,980 |
| Required New Mortgage Financing | $1,149,400 | $1,168,763 | $19,363 |
| Monthly Mortgage Payment | $6,548/mo | $6,307/mo | -$241/mo |
| 5-Year Cumulative Payments | $392,894 | $378,441 | -$14,453 |
| 5-Year Principal Paid Down | $135,484 | $146,924 | $11,440 |
| 5-Year Total Interest Cost | $257,410 | $231,517 | -$25,893 |
Deterministic Model Boundary: Figures compare identical 60-month ownership horizons beginning on different transaction dates. BC PTT calculated according to official Provincial rules (resale, non-first-time buyer). Canadian standard semi-annual compounding applied to fixed mortgage schedules.
Fictional Demonstration · Evidence-Led Simulation
Trade-Off Analysis & Sensitivity
Rate/Price Break-Even, Sensitivity Grid & Adviser Deliberation
Rate vs. Price Break-Even Frontier
Break-Even Mortgage Rate
4.62%
If target price rises by 3%, future rates must drop to 4.62% to prevent payments from rising above today's move.
Break-Even Price Appreciation
5.0%
At the projected 4.25% future rate, target home prices must not grow faster than 5.0% for waiting to remain advantageous.
Sensitivity Grid: Monthly Payment under Varying Market Realities
Monthly payment outcome when both future mortgage rates and target home price growth deviate from baseline (Move Now baseline: $6,548/mo). Green indicates lower monthly carrying cost than moving now.
| Target Price Growth \ Future Rate | 3.25% (-1.0%) | 3.75% (-0.5%) | 4.25% (Base) | 4.75% (+0.5%) | 5.25% (+1.0%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% (Prices soften) | $5,492 (-$1,056) | $5,786 (-$762) | $6,089 (-$459) | $6,400 (-$148) | $6,718 (+$170) |
| +0.5% (Flat market) | $5,593 (-$955) | $5,892 (-$656) | $6,200 (-$348) | $6,516 (-$32) | $6,840 (+$292) |
| +3.0% (Baseline Scenario) | $5,690 (-$858) | $5,994 (-$554) | $6,307 (-$241) | $6,629 (+$81) | $6,958 (+$410) |
| +5.5% (Strong market) | $5,787 (-$761) | $6,096 (-$452) | $6,414 (-$134) | $6,741 (+$193) | $7,076 (+$528) |
Deliberation Questions to Review with Your Mortgage Broker & REALTOR®:
- Prepayment Penalties: Is your current mortgage portable to the new property without penalty, or does an IRD / 3-month interest penalty apply upon sale?
- Stress Test Qualification: Will household qualifying ratios support the new mortgage ($1.15M+) at the qualifying rate (contract rate + 2.0%)?
- Bridge Financing & Subject Conditions: If you find the target home before selling, what is your liquidity buffer and bridge financing eligibility?
- Product Selection: Does a 3-year fixed or adjustable variable provide better prepayment flexibility given your mid-term career plans?
Real Estate Advisory & Local Evidence:
Alex Mackenzie, REALTOR®
Royal LePage Sussex · 2996 Lonsdale Ave
Direct: 604-356-7554 · alexmackenzie@royallepage.ca
Mortgage Financing & Underwriting Review:
Authorized Licensed Mortgage Professional (Space reserved for lender assessment, quote verification & stress-test underwriting review)